OPTIMIZACIÓN MULTIOBJETIVO PARA LA SELECCIÓN DE CARTERAS A LA LUZ DE LA TEORÍA DE LA CREDIBILIDAD: UNA APLICACIÓN EN EL MERCADO INTEGRADO LATINOAMERICANO

El presente trabajo de investigación doctoral tiene como fin optimizar carteras multiobjetivo a la luz de la teoría de la credibilidad. Con el fin de cumplir con este propósito, se propone un novedoso modelo difuso de optimización denominado "Modelo Credibilístico Multiobjetivo de Media-Semivarianza-Liquidez para la Selección de Carteras". La incertidumbre de la liquidez y el rendimiento futuro de cada activo se modela por medio de números difusos L-R con funciones de referencia tipo potencia. Con el objetivo de conseguir un modelo más realista se considera la restricción de cardinalidad que limita el número de activos que participan en las carteras y las restricciones de cotas superiores e inferiores que permiten combinaciones de activos que respetan las preferencias del inversor. Con el propósito de seleccionar la cartera óptima, esta investigación define por primera vez el ratio de Sortino en un entorno credibilístico. El problema de optimización multiobjetivo resultante es lineal y convexo, y la introducción de restricciones realistas convierte el modelo de un problema de optimización cuadrática clásica (classical quadratic optimization problem) a un problema de programación cuadrática de enteros mixtos (quadratic mixed-integer problem) que es NP-hard. Para superar este inconveniente se aplica el Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGAII), MOEA que ha sido utilizado con éxito en la generación de soluciones eficientes en varios modelos multiobjetivos de selección de carteras. Finalmente, se demuestra la efectividad y eficiencia del modelo en aplicaciones prácticas, asumiendo por primera vez la toma de decisiones de inversión en el Mercado Integrado Latinoamericano (MILA), que integra los mercados bursátiles de Chile, Colombia, México y Perú.The present doctoral dissertation aims to optimize multiobjective portfolio in the light of credibility theory. In order to meet this purpose, a novel fuzzy optimization model called "Multiobjective Credibilistic Mean-Semivariance-Liquidity Portfolio Selection Model" is proposed. The uncertainty of the future return and liquidity of each asset are modeled by means of LR-fuzzy numbers belonging to the power family. In order to make a more realistic model, it is considered the cardinality constraint limiting the number of assets participating in the portfolios, and upper and lower bound constraints allowing assets combinations which respect the investor's wishes. In the interest of selecting the optimal portfolio, this research defines for the first time, the Sortino ratio under a credibilistic environment. The resulting multiobjective optimization problem is linear and convex, and the introduction of realistic constraints into the portfolio optimization problem convert the model from a classical quadratic optimization problem to a quadratic mixed-integer problem (QMIP) that is NP-hard. To overcome this drawback, it is applied the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGAII), MOEA that has been used successfully in the generation of efficient solutions in several multi-objective portfolio selection models. Finally, an empirical study is included to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the model in practical applications using for the first time a dataset of assets from the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA by its Spanish acronym), which integrates the stock exchange markets of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru.El present treball d'investigació doctoral té com a finalitat optimitzar carteres multiobjectiu a la llum de la teoria de la credibilitat. Per tal de complir amb aquest propòsit, es proposa un nou model difús d'optimització denominat "Model Credibilístic multiobjectiu de Mitjana-Semivarianza-Liquiditat per a la Selecció de Carteres". La incertesa de la liquiditat i el rendiment futur de cada actiu es modela per mitjà de nombres difusos L-R amb funcions de referència tipus potència. Amb l'objectiu d'aconseguir un model més realista es considera la restricció de cardinalitat que limita el nombre d'actius que participen en les carteres i les restriccions de cotes superiors i inferiors que permeten combinacions d'actius que respecten les preferències de l'inversor. Amb el propòsit de seleccionar la cartera òptima, aquesta investigació defineix per primera vegada la ràtio de Sortino en un entorn credibilístic. El problema d'optimització multiobjectiu resultant és lineal i convex, la introducció de restriccions realistes converteix el model d'un problema d'optimització quadràtica clàssica (classical quadratic optimization problem), a un problema de programació quadràtica d'enters mixtes (quadratic mixed-integer problem) que és NP-hard. Per superar aquest inconvenient s'aplica el Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGAII), MOEA que ha estat utilitzat amb èxit en la generació de solucions eficients en diversos models multiobjectiu de selecció de carteres. Finalment, es demostra l'efectivitat i eficiència del model en aplicacions pràctiques, assumint per primera vegada la presa de decisions d'inversió al Mercat Integrat Llatinoamericà (MILA), que integra els mercats borsaris de Xile, Colòmbia, Mèxic i Perú.González Bueno, JA. (2018). OPTIMIZACIÓN MULTIOBJETIVO PARA LA SELECCIÓN DE CARTERAS A LA LUZ DE LA TEORÍA DE LA CREDIBILIDAD: UNA APLICACIÓN EN EL MERCADO INTEGRADO LATINOAMERICANO [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/102362TESI

Forecasting the environmental, social and governance rating of firms by using corporate financial performance variables: A rough sets approach

[EN] The environmental, social, and governance (ESG) rating of firms is a useful tool for stakeholders and investment decision-makers. This paper develops a rough set model to relate ESG scores to popular corporate financial performance measures. This methodology permits handling with information in an uncertain, ambiguous, and imperfect context. A large database was gathered, including ESG scores, as well as industry sector and financial variables for publicly traded European companies during the period 2013-2018. We carried out 500 simulations of the rough set model for different values in the discretization parameter and different grouping scenarios of firms regarding ESG scores. The results suggest that the variables considered are useful in the prediction of ESG rank when firms are clustered in three or four equally balanced groups. However, the prediction power vanishes when a larger number of groups is computed. This would suggest that industry sector and financial variables serve to find big differences across firms regarding ESG, but the significance of the model drops when small differences in ESG performance are scrutinized.García García, F.; González-Bueno, J.; Guijarro, F.; Oliver-Muncharaz, J. (2020). Forecasting the environmental, social and governance rating of firms by using corporate financial performance variables: A rough sets approach. Sustainability. 12(8):1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12083324S118128García-Rodríguez, F. J., García-Rodríguez, J. L., Castilla-Gutiérrez, C., & Major, S. A. (2013). Corporate Social Responsibility of Oil Companies in Developing Countries: From Altruism to Business Strategy. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 20(6), 371-384. doi:10.1002/csr.1320García, González-Bueno, Oliver, & Riley. (2019). Selecting Socially Responsible Portfolios: A Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach. 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Business & Society, 43(2), 135-161. doi:10.1177/0007650304263919Brammer, S., Brooks, C., & Pavelin, S. (2006). Corporate Social Performance and Stock Returns: UK Evidence from Disaggregate Measures. Financial Management, 35(3), 97-116. doi:10.1111/j.1755-053x.2006.tb00149.xArribas, I., Espinós-Vañó, M. D., García, F., & Oliver, J. (2019). Defining socially responsible companies according to retail investors’ preferences. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 7(2), 1641-1653. doi:10.9770/jesi.2019.7.2(59)Arribas, I., Espinós-Vañó, M., García, F., & Morales-Bañuelos, P. (2019). The Inclusion of Socially Irresponsible Companies in Sustainable Stock Indices. Sustainability, 11(7), 2047. doi:10.3390/su11072047BACCARO, L., & MELE, V. (2011). FOR LACK OF ANYTHING BETTER? INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND GLOBAL CORPORATE CODES. Public Administration, 89(2), 451-470. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9299.2011.01918.xChatterji, A. K., Levine, D. I., & Toffel, M. W. (2009). 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Designing a Sustainable Development Goal Index through a Goal Programming Model: The Case of EU-28 Countries. Sustainability, 10(9), 3167. doi:10.3390/su10093167Guijarro, F. (2019). A Multicriteria Model for the Assessment of Countries’ Environmental Performance. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(16), 2868. doi:10.3390/ijerph16162868Escrig-Olmedo, E., Fernández-Izquierdo, M., Ferrero-Ferrero, I., Rivera-Lirio, J., & Muñoz-Torres, M. (2019). Rating the Raters: Evaluating how ESG Rating Agencies Integrate Sustainability Principles. Sustainability, 11(3), 915. doi:10.3390/su11030915Mattingly, J. E. (2015). Corporate Social Performance: A Review of Empirical Research Examining the Corporation–Society Relationship Using Kinder, Lydenberg, Domini Social Ratings Data. Business & Society, 56(6), 796-839. doi:10.1177/0007650315585761Landi, G., & Sciarelli, M. (2019). Towards a more ethical market: the impact of ESG rating on corporate financial performance. 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Multiobjective Approach to Portfolio Optimization in the Light of the Credibility Theory

[EN] The present research proposes a novel methodology to solve the problems faced by investors who take into consideration different investment criteria in a fuzzy context. The approach extends the stochastic mean-variance model to a fuzzy multiobjective model where liquidity is considered to quantify portfolio's performance, apart from the usual metrics like return and risk. The uncertainty of the future returns and the future liquidity of the potential assets are modelled employing trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. The decision process of the proposed approach considers that portfolio selection is a multidimensional issue and also some realistic constraints applied by investors. Particularly, this approach optimizes the expected return, the risk and the expected liquidity of the portfolio, considering bound constraints and cardinality restrictions. As a result, an optimization problem for the constraint portfolio appears, which is solved by means of the NSGA-II algorithm. This study defines the credibilistic Sortino ratio and the credibilistic STARR ratio for selecting the optimal portfolio. An empirical study on the S&P100 index is included to show the performance of the model in practical applications. The results obtained demonstrate that the novel approach can beat the index in terms of return and risk in the analyzed period, from 2008 until 2018.García García, F.; González-Bueno, J.; Guijarro, F.; Oliver-Muncharaz, J.; Tamosiuniene, R. (2020). Multiobjective Approach to Portfolio Optimization in the Light of the Credibility Theory. Technological and Economic Development of Economy (Online). 26(6):1165-1186. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.13189S11651186266Acerbi, C., & Tasche, D. (2002). On the coherence of expected shortfall. Journal of Banking & Finance, 26(7), 1487-1503. doi:10.1016/s0378-4266(02)00283-2Ahmed, A., Ali, R., Ejaz, A., & Ahmad, I. (2018). 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Mean-variance investment strategy applied in emerging financial markets: evidence from the Colombian stock market

In any investment, an analysis of the expected return and the assumed risk constitutes a fundamental step. Investing in financial assets is no exception. Since the portfolio selection theory was proposed by Markowitz in 1952, this methodology has become the benchmark in portfolio management. However, it is not always possible to apply it, especially when investing in emerging financial markets, which are characterised by a scant variety of available stocks and very lowliquidity. In this paper, using the Colombian case, we will examine the challenges found by investors who want to create a portfolio using only stocks listed on a scarcely developed stock market

Variables para la evaluación y seguimiento de empresas aseguradoras: Revisión y análisis bibliométrico.

A lo largo del tiempo, la industria del seguro ha permitido suavizar los efectos de múltiples situaciones adversas (muerte, invalidez, desastres naturales, etc.) que puede tener el ser humano, mediante la protección del patrimonio de las familias, las empresas y/o del Estado (Agudelo, 2011). Según la Federación de Aseguradores Colombianos (Fasecolda, 2011) existían 45 empresas afiliadas y operando en el país, por lo que una competencia tan intensiva requiere que cada una de las empresas posea una planeación estratégica que le permita tener cierta ventaja con respecto a las demás; sin embargo, contar con una estrategia definida solo es el primer paso. Para poder alcanzar los objetivos planteados, una empresa debe tener un plan de acción que conlleve a un seguimiento y evaluación del cumplimiento de lo que se quiere lograr; sin esto, no es posible diagnosticar el estado de la empresa frente a sus metas. Con este estudio, se buscan determinar las variables para la evaluación y seguimiento de la competitividad de las empresas aseguradoras, a partir de la revisión literaria y el análisis bibliométrico. Los resultados obtenidos, permitieron la identificación de variables relevantes en el sector, como la utilización del reaseguro, la satisfacción de intermediarios, el índice de reclamaciones, la siniestralidad, el uso de canal de distribución directo e indirecto, el coeficiente intelectual de valor agregado entre otras, soportadas en los artículos de mayor impacto según el número de citaciones, los autores y las revistas científicas de mayor frecuencia de publicación.Palabras clave: análisis bibliométrico, seguro, estrategia, desempeño. AbstractOver time, the insurance industry has made it possible to soften the effects that multiple adverse situations (death, disability, natural effects disasters, that etc.) multiple can have adverse on situations human beings (death, by disability, protecting natural disasters, etc.) can have on human beings by protecting the assets of families, disasters, businesses etc.) can and/or have the on State. human (Agudelo, beings by 2011). For 2011, according to the Federation of Colombian Insurers - Fasecolda, there are 45 effects disasters, that etc.) multiple can have adverse on situations human beings (death, by disability, protecting natural the assets of families, disasters, businesses etc.) can and/or have the on State. human (Agudelo, beings by 2011). protecting For 2011, the according to the Federation of Colombian Insurers - Fasecolda, there are 45 affiliated companies operating in the country, so such intensive competition requires that each of the companies has a strategic planning that allows it to have some advantage over the others. However, having a defined strategy is only the first step, in order to achieve the objectives set a company must have an action plan that leads to monitoring and evaluation of compliance with what you want to achieve, without this, it is not possible to diagnose the state of the company against its goals. With this study, it is sought to determine the variables for the evaluation and follow-up of the competitiveness of the insurance companies, from the literary revision and the bibliometric analysis. The results obtained allow the identification of relevant variables in the sector, such as the use of reinsurance, the satisfaction of intermediaries, the claims index, the claims rate, the use of direct and indirect distribution channels, added value intellectual coefficient among others, supported in the articles with the greatest impact according to the number of citations, the authors and the scientific journals with the highest publication frequency. Keywords: bibliometric analysis, insurance, strategy, performance

What is the cost of maximizing ESG performance in the portfolio selection strategy? The case of The Dow Jones Index average stocks

[EN] Portfolio selection is one of the main financial topics. The original portfolio selection problem dealt with the trade-off between return and risk, measured as the mean returns and the variance, respectively. For investors more variables other than return and risk are considered to select the stocks to be included in the portfolio. Nowadays, many investors include corporate social responsibility as one eligibility criterion. Additionally, other return and risk measures are being employed. All of this, together with further constraints such as portfolio cardinality, which mirror real-world demands by investors, have made the multicriteria portfolio selection problem to be NP-hard. To solve this problem, heuristics such as the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II have been developed. The aim of this paper is to analyse the trade-off between return, risk and corporate social responsibility. To this end, we construct pareto efficient portfolios using a fuzzy multicriteria portfolio selection model with real-world constraints. The model is applied on a set of 28 stocks which are constituents of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index. The analysis shows that portfolios scoring higher in corporate social responsibility obtain lower returns. As of the risk, the riskier portfolios are those with extreme (high or low) corporate social responsibility scores. Finally, applying the proposed portfolio selection methodology, it is possible to build investment portfolios that dominate the benchmark. That is, socially responsible portfolios, measured by ESG scores, must not necessarily be penalized in terms of return or risk.García García, F.; Gankova-Ivanova, T.; González-Bueno, J.; Oliver-Muncharaz, J.; Tamosiuniene, R. (2022). What is the cost of maximizing ESG performance in the portfolio selection strategy? The case of The Dow Jones Index average stocks. Enterpreneurship and Sustainability Issues. 9(4):178-192. https://doi.org/10.9770/jesi.2022.9.3(9)1781929

A credibilistic mean-semivariance-PER portfolio selection model for Latin America

Many real-world problems in the financial sector have to consider different objectives which are conflicting, for example portfolio selection. Markowitz proposed an approach to determine the optimal composition of a portfolio analysing the trade-off between return and risk. Nevertheless, this approach has been criticized for unrealistic assumptions and several changes have been proposed to incorporate investors’ constraints and more realistic risk measures. In this line of research, our proposal extends the mean-semivariance portfolio selection model to a multiobjective credibilistic model that besides risk and return, also considers the price-to-earnings ratio to measure portfolio performance. Uncertain future returns and PER ratio of each asset are approximated using L-R power fuzzy numbers. Furthermore, we consider budget, bound and cardinality constraints. To solve the constrained portfolio optimization problem, we use the algorithm NSGA-II. We assess the proposed approach generating a portfolio with shares included in the Latin American Integrated Market. Results show that this new approach is a good alternative to solve the portfolio selection problem when multiple objectives are considered

Una visión actual de la teoría moderna del portafolio.

La teoría de la selección de carteras fue establecida por Harry Markowitz en la redacción de su disertación doctoral en estadística en 1952. Este enfoque innovador sentó las bases de la teoría moderna de la selección de cartera y se basa en la suposición de que los inversores buscan el rendimiento máximo esperado para un nivel de riesgo dado, y un riesgo mínimo para un nivel de rendimiento esperado. Este artículo presentará una visión actual de la teoría moderna de la cartera, a través de una visión de la literatura que construirá un marco, que proporcionará algunas definiciones importantes para la adquisición de una cartera de inversión óptima